By using the monthly mean grid data of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis at 500 hPa geopotential height from 1958 to 1997,the relationship between the Northeast cold vortex and the western Pacific subtropical high was analyzed.The influence of the sea surface temperature(SST) and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) on the Northeast cold vortex and subtropical high was studied.As was shown in the results,in summer,there was a positive correlation between the Northeast cold vortex and the subtropical high,and an anti-phase relationship existed between the threshold characteristic line of GMS-SST=28 ℃ and the height index of the Northeast cold vortex and the subtropical high.With the gradual northward moving of the threshold characteristic line,the subtropical high was weakening,and the Northeast cold vortex was increasing and strengthening.
The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang on May 2,2010 and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang region,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm weather accurately.In our paper,the reasons for missing report of this thunderstorm weather were analyzed,and analysis on thunderstorm potential was carried out by means of mesoscale analysis technique,providing technical index and vantage point for the prediction of thunderstorm potential.The results showed that the reasons for missing report of this weather process were as follows:surface temperature at prophase was constantly lower going against the development of convective weather;the interpreting and analyzing ability of numerical forecast product should be improved;the forecast result of T639 model was better than that of Japanese numerical forecast;the study and application of mesoscale analysis technique should be strengthened,and this service was formally developed after thunderstorm weather on June 1,2010.
