Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV), and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.
A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.
利用1975—2008年云南6个气候代表站的最高气温、最低气温和平均气温资料,分析了气温序列的变化趋势,探讨了可能的形成原因。结果显示,各代表站的气温总体上呈上升趋势,但气温变化率的大小与其所处的气候带之间没有明显的规律性差异。代表高原气候的香格里拉站其气温增暖趋势最突出,代表北亚热带、中亚热带和南亚热带站点的气温与其有相似的变化趋势,主要表现为最低气温增温速率最大,平均气温次之,最高气温最小,而气温日较差(DTR:Difference of Temperature Range)有明显减小趋势。温带和北热带代表站气温的变化则有不同的特征,温带的变化表现为最高气温显著上升,最低气温上升速率略小于平均气温的上升速率,DTR变化不显著;北热带的变化表现为平均气温增温速率最大,最低气温次之,最高气温最小,DTR变化不显著。对各站相对暖日、冷日、暖夜、冷夜和霜日的逐年统计分析表明,总体上云南的冷事件在减少,而暖事件增多。
