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国家自然科学基金(41121001)

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相关机构:中国科学院中国科学院大学中国气象科学研究院更多>>
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31 条 记 录,以下是 1-10
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不同再分析气温在东南极中山站-Dome A断面的适用性评价被引量:5
2014年
对比分析2005~2008年五种再分析资料和东南极地区气象站实测的日平均2m气温,结果表明:五种再分析资料都能够解释超过70%的方差,年均方根误差为3.4~6.9℃.三种NOAA再分析资料NCEP-1,NCEP.2和20CRv2呈现冷偏差(分别为-2.5,-1.4和-1.5℃),ERAInterim和JCDAS呈现暖偏差(分别为1.7和2.0℃).五种再分析气温通常在(南半球)春季适用性强,冬、秋季适用性差;在海拔2800m高原内陆EAGLE地区适用性最强,在东南极冰盖最高点DomeA地区适用性最差.ERAInterim适用性优于其他再分析资料,可能源于其4D同化体系;三种NOAA再分析资料适用性最差,因为其同化体系更多地受控于有限的观测资料,20CRv2同化数据更少,仅仅同化了表面气压观测资料.虽然再分析气温具有一定的不足和局限性,但是,仍然不失为南极地区气候研究的有效工具.在南极,尤其是在广袤的南极内陆地区,进一步加强更多的实地观测显得尤为重要.
谢爱红Ian ALLISON效存德王士猛任贾文秦大河
关键词:再分析资料自动气象站
Variations in the equilibrium line altitude of Urumqi Glacier No.1,Tianshan Mountains,over the past 50 years被引量:7
2012年
The glacier ELA is one of the important parameters reflecting climate change.Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains,we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors,warm season air temperature(air temperature averages for May,June,July and August) and annual precipitation.Result showed that,warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations.The glacier ELA ascends(descends) 61.7 m when warm season air temperature increases(decreases) by 1°C,and ascends(descends) 13.1 m when cold season precipitation decreases(increases) by 10%.In the period 1959-2008,the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend,ascending108 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2008 at 4168 m a.s.l.,close to the glacier summit.If future climate is similar to that in the past 50 years,the ELA of Urumqi Glacier No.1 will still ascend with a speed of 2.16 m/a.However,If future climate is similar to that in the period 2000-2008,the ELA will still ascend with a speed of 6.5 m/a before it is stable.As a result of ELA variation,the accumulation area ratio(AAR) of the glacier showed a decreasing trend during the past 50 years.
DONG ZhiWenQIN DaHeREN JiaWenLI KaiMingLI ZhongQin
关键词:空气温度ELA年降水量
东南极冰盖Princess Elizabeth地区LGB69冰芯化学记录反映的南印度洋过去300 a大气环流变化被引量:5
2015年
利用2002年中国南极考察期间在东南极冰盖Princess Elizabeth地区钻取的LGB69冰芯,对其海盐离子与大气环流的关系进行了分析.结果表明:冰芯主要化学离子的经验正交函数(EOF)分解的第一特征向量(EOF1)可以作为描述海盐气溶胶的传输强度的代用指标,可用于表征南印度洋准定常低压带海平面气压(SLP)的变化.冰芯最近23 a(1979-2001年)的记录与SLP和低层风场的相关模态反映了海平面气压场准半年振荡(SAO)和南极大陆边缘下降风的季节特征.LGB69冰芯很好地记录了1708-2001年间南半球环状模(SAM)的变化特征,Na+时间序列呈现的3.5 a周期变化与SAM的周期变化具有很好地一致性.在1970年SAM转为正位相后,其与Na+的相关关系也由负相关转为正相关.LGB69冰芯的海盐离子可以作为重建过去近300 a海平面气压场和SAM变化的代用指标.
杨佼效存德丁明虎窦挺峰
关键词:冰芯PRINCESS
Estimation of water balance in the source region of the Yellow River based on GRACE satellite data被引量:8
2013年
Water storage has important significance for understanding water cycles of global and local domains and for monitoring climate and environmental changes. As a key variable in hydrology, water storage change represents the sum of precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, soil water and groundwater exchanges. Water storage change data during the period of 2003-2008 for the source region of the Yellow River were collected from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. The monthly actual evaporation was estimated according to the water balance equation. The simulated actual evaporation was significantly consistent and correlative with not only the observed pan (20 cm) data, but also the simulated results of the version 2 of Simple Biosphere model. The average annual evaporation of the Tangnaihai Basin was 506.4 mm, where evaporation in spring, summer, autumn and winter was 130.9 mm, 275.2 mm, 74.3 mm and 26.1 mm, and accounted for 25.8%, 54.3%, 14.7% and 5.2% of the average annual evaporation, respectively, The precipitation increased slightly and the actual evaporation showed an obvious decrease. The water storage change of the source region of the Yellow River displayed an increase of 0.51 mm per month from 2003 to 2008, which indicated that the storage capacity has significantly increased, probably caused by the degradation of permafrost and the increase of the thickness of active layers. The decline of actual evaporation and the increase of water storage capacity resulted in the increase of river runoff.
Min XUBaiSheng YEQiuDong ZHAOShiQing ZHANGJiang WANG
Characteristics and source of aerosols at Shiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains, China
2016年
Aerosol samples were collected in the Shiyi Glacier, Qilian Mountains from July 24 to August 19, 2012 and analyzed for major water-soluble ionic species(F-, Cl-, NO2-, NO3-, SO42-, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+and Ca2+) by ion chromatography. SO42-and NH4+were the most abundant components of all the anions and cations, with average concentrations of 94.72 and 54.26 neq/m3, respectively, accounting for 34% and 20% of the total water-soluble ions analyzed. These mean ion concentrations were generally comparable with the background conditions in remote sites of the Qilian Mountains, but were much lower than those in certain cities in China. The particles were grouped into two dominant types according to their morphology and EDX signal: Si-rich particles and Fe-rich particles. Backward air mass trajectory analysis suggested that inland cities may contribute some anthropogenic pollution to this glacier, while the arid and semi-arid regions of central Asia were the primary sources of the mineral particles.
XiaoYu ZhangZhongQin LiPing ZhouShengJie Wang
关键词:AEROSOLGLACIERPARTICLES
基于残差修正的灰色神经网络在数据挖掘中的应用被引量:2
2015年
针对时间序列数据样本少、部分信息未知的特点,提出将灰色理论与神经网络相结合构建灰色神经网络,充分利用两种方法的优势对小样本时间序列数据进行有效挖掘.为了提高模型的预测精度,提出利用残差对模型进行有效修正.实验分析表明,残差修正灰色神经网络具有较高的预测精度,适合于小样本时间序列数据的挖掘.
孙金岭庞娟
关键词:数据挖掘神经网络
A 2680-year record of sea ice extent in the Ross Sea and the associated atmospheric circulation derived from the DT401 East Antarctic ice core被引量:4
2015年
Long time series of Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) are important for climate research and model forecasting. A historic ice extent in the Ross Sea in early austral winter was rebuilt through sea salt ions in the DT401 ice core in interior East Antarctica. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had a significant influence on the sea salt deposition in DT401 through its influence on the Ross Sea SIE and the transport of sea salt inland. Spectral analysis also supported the influence of ENSO with a significant 2-6 a periodicity band. In addition, statistically significant decadal (10 a) and pentadecadal (50-70 a) periodicities suggested the existence of a teleconnection from the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which originated from sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The first eigenvector of the empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF1) showed lower values during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while higher values were found in the Little Ice Age (LIA). A higher frequency of ENSO events were found in the cold climatic stage, The post 1800 AD period was occupied by significant fluctuations of the EOF1, and PDO may be one of the influencing factors. The EOF1 values showed moderate fluctuations from 680 BC to 1000 AD, showing that the climate was relatively stable in this period.
LI ChuanJinREN JiaWenXIAO CunDeHOU ShuGuiDING MingHuQIN DaHe
关键词:ENSO
巍巍高原话气候
2016年
青藏高原以其独特的人文和自然景观闻名于世。同时,这里也是科学研究的殿堂,冰川、积雪和多年冻土等冰冻圈奇观吸引着一代又一代科学家克服常人无法想象的困难前往探究。高原的冰冻圈不仅孕育了黄河、长江、雅鲁藏布江和澜沧江等大江大河,也记录着这里独特的气候变迁。
杜文涛康世昌
关键词:青藏高原气候变迁自然景观多年冻土冰冻圈
Atmospheric insight to climatic signals of δ^18O in a Laohugou ice core in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2006
2016年
Ice documentation and response to prominent warming, especially after the 1990s, is further investigated because it is concerned whether ice records have absence. A δ^18O series of a Laohugou (LHG) shallow ice core (20.12 m) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was reconstructed covering the period of 1960–2006. The ice core δ^18O record had sig-nificant positive correlations with the warm season (May–September) air temperatures at adjacent meteorological stations and the 500 hPa temperatures in boreal China, indicating that the δ^18O record could be considered a credible proxy of regional temperature. A clear, cold temperature event in 1967 and rapid warming after the 1990s were captured in the LHG δ^18O series, revealing that it could record extreme air-temperature events on both regional and global scales. The LHG δ^18O variations had evident positive correlations with both the summer surface outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the Mongolia region and the summer meridional wind at 500 hPa in the LHG region during 1960–2006, suggesting that the increased OLR in the Mongolia region might have intensified the Mongolia Low and expanded the pressure gradient to the LHG region (the Shulehe High), which would have pushed the westerlies further north and suppressed southward incursions of cold air into the LHG region, and thus augmented the temperature rise. The regional atmospheric circulation difference (1985–2006 minus 1960–1984) suggested that the anticyclone in the Mongolia region might have developed the easterly wind, which transported warmer air from the east toward the LHG region and weakened the cold penetration of the westerlies, resulting in the temperature rise since the middle 1980s.
WenTao DuShiChang KangXiang QinXiaoQing CuiWeiJun Sun
Disturbance of light-absorbing aerosols on the albedo in a winter snowpack of Central Tibet被引量:3
2013年
A field observation on the albedo of the snowpack in Central Tibet was conducted in the Nam Co region in the winter of 2011. Snow properties, including grain size and density, were measured in the field, and surface-layer snow samples (down to 5 cm) were collected. The average concentrations of black carbon and dust were 72 ppbm (close to that in the glaciers of Mt. Nyainqentanglha) and 120 ppmm, respectively. Inverse trends were found to exist between the albedo of the snowpack and light-absorbing aerosols (LAAs) as well as grain size growth. Modeling showed that black carbon, dust, and grain growth in the winter snowpack can reduce the broadband albedo by 11%, 28%, and 61%, respectively.
Jing MingPengling WangShuyu ZhaoPengfei Chen
关键词:ALBEDOSNOW
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