The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.
NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and Chinese daily gridded precipitation data are used to study the relationship between an aprupt drought-flood transition over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO; 30-60 days） in the mid-high latitude meridional circulation of the upper troposphere over East Asia. The abrupt transition from drought to flood occurs in early June. The first two recovered fields of the complex empirical orthogonal function show that northward-propagating westerlies from low latitudes converge with southward-propagating westerlies from high latitudes over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in mid late May. The timing of this convergence corresponds to the flood period in early-mid June. The ISO index is significantly and positively correlated with rainfall over the MLRYR. During the dry phase （before the transition）, the upper troposphere over the MLRYR is characterized by cyclonic flow, easterly winds, and convergence. The regional circulation is dominated by a wave train with a cyclone over east of Lake Baikal, an anticyclone over northern China, and a cyclone over the MLRYR. During the wet phase, the situation is reversed. The configuration of the wave train during the dry phase favors the southward propagation of westerly wind disturbances, while the configuration of the wave train during the wet phase favors the development and maintenance of a pumping effect and sustained ascending motions over the MLRYR.
Observational and reanalysis data are used to investigate the different relationships between boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） in the Indian and Pacific oceans and summer precipitation in China. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the effects of spring Indian Ocean SST （IO SST） and Pacific SST （PSST） anomalies on summer precipitation in China are qualitatively opposite. When IO SST anomalies are considered independently of PSST anomalies, precipitation decreases south of the Yangtze River, in most areas of Inner Mongolia, and in some parts of Liaoning Province, and increases in the Yangtze River valley, parts of southwestern and northern China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang Province. This results in a negative-positive-negative-positive pattern of precipitation anomalies in China from south to north. When PSST anomalies （particularly those in the Nin o3.4 region） are considered independently of IO SST anomalies, the pattern of precipitation anomalies in China is positive-negative-positive-negative from south to north. The genesis of summer precipitation anomalies in China is also examined when El Nin o-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals are removed from the ocean and atmosphere. An anticyclonic low-level wind anomaly forms in the South China Sea-Northwest Pacific area when the IO SST anomaly （SSTA） is warm and the Northwest Pacific SSTA is cold. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially influences summer precipitation in China. Anomalous warming of tropical IO SST induces positive geopotential height anomalies in the subtropics and an east-west dipole pattern in midlatitudes over Asia. These anomalies also affect summer precipitation in China.
Using monthly mean sea ice velocity data obtained from the International Arctic Buoy Programme （IABP） for the period of 1979–1998 and the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset （1960–2002）, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of the leading sea ice motion mode （based on a complex correlation matrix constructed of normalized sea ice motion velocity） and their association with sea level pressure （SLP） and the predominant modes of surface wind field variability. The results indicate that the leading winter sea ice motion mode’s spatial evolution is characterized by two alternating and distinct sea ice modes, or their linear combination. One mode （M1） shows a nearly closed cyclonic or anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in the Arctic Basin and its marginal seas, resembling to a large extent the response of sea ice motion to the Arctic Oscillation （AO）, as many previous studies have revealed. The other mode （M2） displays a coherent cyclonic or anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly with its center close to the Laptev Sea, which has not been identified in previous observational studies. In fact, M1 and M2 respectively reflect the responses of sea ice motion to two predominant modes of winter surface wind variability north of 70 ？ N, which well correspond, with slight differences, to the first two modes of EOF analysis of winter monthly mean SLP north of 70 ？ N. These slight differences in SLP anomalies lead to a difference of M2 from the response of sea ice motion to the dipole anomaly. Although the AO significantly influences sea ice motion, it is not crucial for the existence of M1. The new sea ice motion mode （M2） has the largest variance and clearly differs from the response of winter monthly mean sea ice motion to the dipole anomaly in SLP fields, and corresponding SLP anomalies also show differences compared to the dipole anomaly. This study indicates that in the Arctic Basin and its marginal seas, slight differences in SLP anomaly patterns can force distinctly diff
In our previous study, a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration （SIC） and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968-2005 was identified. This linkage is demonstrated by the leading singular value decomposition （SVD） that accounts for 19% of the co-variance. Both spring SIC and Chinese summer rainfall exhibit a coherent interannual variability and two apparent interdecadal variations that occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1990s. The combined impacts of both spring Arctic SIC and Eurasian snow cover on the summer Eurasian wave train may explain their statistical linkage. In this study, we show that evolution of atmospheric circulation anomalies from spring to summer, to a great extent, may explain the spatial distribution of spring and summer Arctic SIC anomalies, and is dynamically consistent with Chinese summer rainfall anomalies in recent decades. The association between spring Arctic SIC and Chinese summer rainfall on interannual time scales is more important relative to interdecadal time scales. The summer Arctic dipole anomaly may serve as the bridge linking the spring Arctic SIC and Chinese summer rainfall, and their coherent interdecadal variations may reflect the feedback of spring SIC variability on the atmosphere. The summer Arctic dipole anomaly shows a closer relationship with the Chinese summer rainfall relative to the Arctic Oscillation.
Using the NCEP/NCAR and JRA-25 monthly analysis data from 1979 to 2011,this paper analyzes the interdecadal variations of winter(Dec.–Feb.)mean surface air temperature(SAT)over East Asia by means of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis method.Two dominant modes were extracted,with the leading mode basically depicting a sign consistent SAT variation and the second mode describing a meridional dipole structure between the northern and southern parts of East Asia.These two modes can explain more than 60%of the variance.The leading mode is closely related to the intensity of Siberian high and the East Asian winter monsoon.The second mode exhibits a notable interdecadal shift in the late 1990s,with a turning point around1996/1997.Winter SAT in the northern(southern)part of East Asia tends to be cooler(warmer)since the late 1990.Winter sea level pressure(SLP)differences between 1997–2011 and 1979–1996 show negative(positive)anomalies over southern(northern)Eurasia.At 500-hPa,an anomalous blocking high occurs over northern Eurasia,while a cyclone anomaly appears over northern East Asia.In addition,the upper-level East Asian jet stream tends to shift northward and become stronger after the late 1990.Indeed,the interdecadal shift of winter SAT over East Asia is dynamical consistent with changes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the late 1990s.The result indicates that previous autumn sea surface temperature(SST)in the North Atlantic Ocean,the Northern Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean,as well as sea ice concentration(SIC)in the northern Eurasia marginal seas and the Beaufort Sea also experienced obvious changes in the late 1990s.In particular,the interdecadal shifts of both SST in the North Atlantic Ocean and SIC in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas are well coherent with that of the winter SAT over East Asia.The results indicate that the interdecadal shift of East Asian winter SAT may be related to changes in the North Atlantic SST and the Arctic SIC in the late 1990s.
