A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data and prior information about human performance together,a more accurate and specific HEP estimation can be achieved.For the time-unrelated task without rigorous time restriction,the HEP estimated by the common-used human reliability analysis（HRA） methods or expert judgments is collected as the source of prior information.And for the time-related task with rigorous time restriction,the human error is expressed as non-response making.Therefore,HEP is the time curve of non-response probability（NRP）.The prior information is collected from system safety and reliability specifications or by expert judgments.The（joint） posterior distribution of HEP or NRP-related parameter（s） is constructed after prior information has been collected.Based on the posterior distribution,the point or interval estimation of HEP/NRP is obtained.Two illustrative examples are introduced to demonstrate the practicality of the aforementioned approach.
As for the drop of particle diversity and the slow convergent speed of particle in the late evolution period when particle swarm optimization（PSO） is applied to solve high-dimensional multi-modal functions,a hybrid optimization algorithm based on the cat mapping,the cloud model and PSO is proposed.While the PSO algorithm evolves a certain of generations,this algorithm applies the cat mapping to implement global disturbance of the poorer individuals,and employs the cloud model to execute local search of the better individuals;accordingly,the obtained best individuals form a new swarm.For this new swarm,the evolution operation is maintained with the PSO algorithm,using the parameter of pop distr to balance the global and local search capacity of the algorithm,as well as,adopting the parameter of mix gen to control mixing times of the algorithm.The comparative analysis is carried out on the basis of 4 functions and other algorithms.It indicates that this algorithm shows faster convergent speed and better solving precision for solving functions particularly those high-dimensional multi-modal functions.Finally,the suggested values are proposed for parameters pop distr and mix gen applied to different dimension functions via the comparative analysis of parameters.
