A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in China under the same power generation and CO2 emissions levels.The plant types included pulverized coal(PC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC),and natural gas combined cycle(NGCC)plants.We take into account a subsidy policy consistent with the 45Q tax credit of the U.S.,as well as uncertainty factors,such as carbon price,technological progress,CO_(2) geological storage paths,oil price,and electricity price.The results showed that the investment benefit of ordinary NGCC power plants is 93.04 million USD.This provides greater economic advantages than the other two plant types as their investment benefit is negative if the captured CO_(2) was used for enhanced water recovery(EWR),even if 45Q subsidies are provided.Compared with NGCC+CCUS power plants,PC+CCUS and IGCC+CCUS power plants have more advantages in terms of economic benefits and emission reduction.The 45Q subsidy policy reduced the critical carbon price,which determines the decision to invest or not,by 30.14 USDt^(-1) for the PC and IGCC power plants and by 15.24 USDt^(-1) for the NGCC power plants.Nevertheless,only when the subsidy reaches at least 71.84 USDt^(-1) and the period limit is canceled can all three types of power plants be motivated to invest in CCUS and used the capture CO_(2) for EWR.Overall,the government should focus on the application of CCUS in coal-fired power plants(in addition to developing gas power generation),especially when CO_(2) is used for enhanced oil recovery(EOR).The government could introduce fiscal policies,such as 45Q or stronger,to stimulate CCUS technology development in China.
FAN Jing-LiSHEN ShuoXU MaoYANG YangYANG LinZHANG Xian
CO2捕集和封存技术(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)作为我国应对气候变化三大措施之一,是重要的战略技术储备。目前我国CCS主要是以政府引导、联合开展示范性工程为主,而CCS全流程示范涉及内部各要素的选择和组合问题。为更好地统筹规划CCS全流程技术示范,亟需从现有技术成熟度、我国技术掌握水平、技术发展前景以及成本、风险、目标一致性、技术涵盖性、现实性等方面选取合适的CCS技术组合。本研究通过问卷调查和面对面访谈的方式对140位专家关于CCS全流程示范技术的偏好进行研究,采用联合分析法,分析专家对CCS技术的接受和偏好程度。结果表明,专家认为封存方式是CCS技术发展中最重要的因素,其次是捕集方式和运输方式。同时我们发现,来自不同部门的专家对CCS技术发展的看法不太一样。最后,通过分析筛选出近10种全流程CCS技术组合。
近年来,碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术在全球范围内受到广泛关注。本文利用文献计量方法对2000—2020年来自Web of Science数据库中CCUS相关科学文献进行了系统统计与分析。主要统计结果表明:1)美国CCUS技术领域研究较早且此后长期处于领先地位,中国发文量和H指数相对靠前,但篇均被引频次较低。全球主要机构中,美国能源部、中国科学院和伦敦帝国理工学院对CCUS技术的研究实力和投入远远高于其他机构,其出版总量占全球出版总量的10.01%。2)从国家间合作来看,美国一直是各国合作的主要对象。然而随着时间的推移,国家间合作的聚集性逐渐降低,各国在CCUS技术领域的差距有所减小,近年来,再度出现聚集性。3)从关键词随时间的变化可以看出,除CCUS技术本身外,CO2捕集、运输和封存一直是CCUS领域研究重点。近年来,CO2利用途径和利用方式的相关研究逐渐增加,在此阶段,生物能源、负排放、生物能源碳捕集与封存(BECCS)等关键词热度迅速上升,CCUS技术经济性研究热度也不断攀升。CO2利用、负排放技术及CCUS技术经济性研究将持续成为未来CCUS领域研究热点。
In recent years,renewable energy has taken on an increasingly important role as a result of the depletion of traditional fossil fuels and the pressure of climate change.Due to the advantages of clean energy production and wide availability,research on renewable energy has increased worldwide.We collected data from the Web of Science and the Derwent Innovations Index to analyze research trends in the field of renewable energy.It was found that the number of research achievements in this field has developed rapidly worldwide since 2005.The United States ranks first in the quantity and quality of literature and fourth in the number of authorized patents.China ranks second and first regarding the quantity of literature and authorized patents,respectively.Biomass energy,wind energy,and solar energy are trending research topics in various stages of development.China has maintained close cooperation with the United States,the United Kingdom,Australia,and other countries.
