文章基于对广东省34地农户稻作保险购买行为的调研,采用开放的二分选择式条件估价法获取1772户农户水稻保险支付意愿(Willingness To Pay,WTP)数据,运用Tobit模型针对稻作风险、农户风险意识、风险管理替代工具和农户家庭特征四类二十个因素进行了检验和讨论。研究表明,产量变异系数、风险损失频率等七个因素对支付意愿的影响最为显著性,家庭纯收入、对农业保险的认同等四个因素对支付意愿的影响较为显著,保险免赔率、生产总成本等六个因素对支付意愿有一定影响,而稻作面积、是否参与过其他保险等三个因素的影响甚微,文章最后根据测算结果提出了发展广东省农业保险的政策建议。
Rural-urban land conversion is a universal phenomenon in the rapid process of economic development and urban growth.The welfare of farmers who lost their farmland attracted a widespread concern within the society and academia.However,further research about differentiated policies according to the characteristics of different farmer groups is still need to be conducted.This article divides the land-lost farmers into three age groups:younger than 45,45-65,and more than 65.It proposes a welfare index system including eight functional areas based on different age groups of affected farmers,taking four districts of Wuhan City as case study area.Fuzzy mathematics method is used to derive the aggregated welfare effect index.Our analysis show that the overall welfare levels of land-lost farmers of all age groups declined,but with a varying degree,with the level of welfare in those farmers who are 45-65 years old,younger than 45 years old,and older than 65 years old decreased by 18.7%,16.6%,and 12.7%,respectively.The direction and degree of effects on the functional activity index varies among different groups.Economic conditions,living environment,health,and social participation of all age groups decrease while social security and housing conditions increase.On the other hand,development opportunities,social communication,and leisure have different changing directions in different age stages.These results call for differentiated and tailor-made compensation policies for land-lost farmers,towards improving the welfare levels of all farmers and reduce the disparity among them.
