利用夏季东亚地区500 h Pa高度场和菲律宾附近的降水场进行SVD分析,将东亚500 h Pa高度场对应的时间序列定义为PJ指数,该指数不仅清楚地反映PJ型的年际变化,而且反应出PJ型的年代际变化,即500 h Pa高度场型态在20世纪70年代末由"气旋、反气旋、气旋"型突变为"反气旋、气旋、反气旋"型。本文研究表明PJ指数的年际变化与ENSO事件有密切的联系:El Ni1o事件通过电容器充电效应使印度洋海温增暖,而增暖的印度洋海温在菲律宾海附近强迫出异常反气旋,并沿东亚沿岸激发出PJ遥相关型。而PJ型态的年代际变化与热带印度洋SST的持续增暖有关。虽然许多学者认为是菲律宾附近海温异常引起对流异常,并沿东亚沿岸激发出PJ遥相关型,但我们认为该区域的海温变化并不是造成PJ型年际和年代际变化的原因,而是由于该区域有反气旋(或者气旋)异常,从而辐射增加(减少),蒸发减弱(增加),温跃层下降(上升),SST变暖(变冷),该区域的海温变暖意味着对流是减弱的。本文进一步利用大气环流模式ECHAM5.4进行数值试验,结果表明:当热带印度洋增暖时,在菲律宾海附近强迫出反气旋,并沿东亚激发出"反气旋、气旋、反气旋"PJ遥相关型。
In this work,an index of tropical 20-90 d oscillation(intra-seasonal oscillation;ISO)in the western North Pacific(WNP)was determined via the combined empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method using daily outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)field data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),daily wind field data(at 850 hPa)from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and referencing the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)index proposed by Wheeler and Hendon.An in-depth investigation was conducted to examine the impact of the ISO on changes in tropical cyclone(TC)tracks in the WNP during different ISO phases.The research results indicate that during the easterly phase of the ISO,under the impact of the northeastern airflow of anti-cyclonic ISO circulation,the easterly airflow south of the western Pacific subtropical high is relatively weak,and TCs generated in the subtropical high tend to change their tracks east of 140°E;during the westerly phase,there is a relatively high probability that TCs change their tracks west of 140°E.This work also analyzed the ISO flow field situation in cases of typhoons and determined that the track of a tropical cyclone will experience a sudden right turn when the center of the ISO cyclonic(anti-cyclonic)circulation coincides with that of the cyclone.
We diagnose characteristics of the quasi-balanced flow and secondary circulation（SC） of tropical storm Bilis（2006） using the potential vorticity（PV）-ω inversion method.We further analyze how secondary steering flows associated with mesoscale convective systems affected the track of tropical storm Bilis after it made landfall.The quasi-balanced asymmetric and axisymmetric circulation structures of tropical storm Bilis are represented well by the PV-w inversion.The magnitude of the nonlinear quasi-balanced vertical velocity is approximately 75%of the magnitude simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model.The SC of Bilis（2006） contained two strong regions of ascending motion,both of which were located in the southwest quadrant of the storm.The first（150-200 km southwest of the storm center） corresponded to the eyewall region,while the second（approximately 400 km southwest of the storm center） corresponded to latent heat release associated with strong precipitation in major spiral rainbands.The SC was very weak in the northeast quadrant（the upshear direction）.Dynamical processes related to the environmental vertical wind shear produced an SC that partially offset the destructive effects of the environmental vertical wind shear（by 20%-25%）.This SC consisted of upward motion in the southwest quadrant and subsidence in the northeast quadrant,with airflow oriented from southwest to northeast at high altitudes and from northeast to southwest at lower levels.The inverted secondary zonal and meridional steering flows associated with continuous asymmetric mesoscale convective systems were about-2.14 and-0.7 m s^（-1）,respectively.These steering flows contributed substantially to the zonal（66.15%） and meridional（33.98%） motion of the storm at 0000 UTC15 July 2006.The secondary steering flow had a significant influence on changing the track of Bilis from southward to northward.The direction of the large-scale meridional steering flow（3.02 m s^（-1）） was
